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| The final picks of the semifinals are now locked in with seven members still mathematically alive for three spots in the finals. Jason Oroszi is the only member eliminated heading into the final day with Mike Brekke and Charles Yelverton being the only members guaranteed to be picking over the weekend. Here's a breakdown of each relevant member's final day: [3] Dave Berrong (1 Point)- 9/30 Pick: NYM [DMU] Maximum Points: 5 Minimum Points: -3 How He'd Qualify: A Mets win. How He'd Miss Out: The Mets losing, the Giants winning and the Red Sox winning should be the elixir to pull off the anti-miracle. Chances: 80% likelihood of advancing. He's put his pick behind a starting pitcher with just three decisions, but the Mets are still favored at home while the Giants lead 2-1 through five innings. The Red Sox are favored with Jon Lester on the mound tonight, but it's still hard to believe he's going to be jumped over by three members. All that being said, I'd have to imagine his pick was aimed at making a run at the top two of the weekend. [4] Brad Wilson (0)- 9/30 Pick: SF Maximum Points: 2 Minimum Points: -2 How He'd Qualify: The Giants winning. How He'd Miss Out: The Giants losing, the Mets winning and the Red Sox winning would knock him down to sixth. Chances: 70% likelihood of advancing. Last season's playoff champion is in position to advance to the last round to cap off his title defense, but it could be close. The Giants lead through five, but it's only 2-1, while the Mets and Red Sox are favored in their matchups. Before the game started, I would have put his odds of advancing at 75%. While this was written, Buster Posey has hit a two-run HR to put the Giants up 4-1 and move the likelihood up to 70% from 65%. [5] Jeffery Murowsky (-2)- 9/30 Pick: BOS [DMU] Maximum Points: 2 Minimum Points: -6 How He'd Qualify: A Boston win would not only move him into the postseason, but move him into at least a tie for fourth. There isn't a scenario where he's eliminated with a correct pick. How He'd Miss Out: A Red Sox loss. A Red Sox loss would mean a White Sox win. In which case, he'd have less points than Soester. Chances: 55% likelihood of advancing. Murowsky's prospects are the most clear cut, and the Red Sox are a slight favorite with Lester on the mound in Chicago against John Danks going for win number 20. [6] Greg Krause (-3)- 9/30 Pick: NYM [DMU] Maximum Points: 1 Minimum Points: -7 How He'd Qualify: A Mets win and a Giants or Red Sox loss. How He'd Miss Out: A Mets loss. Chances: 40% likelihood of advancing. A Mets win could move him as high as fourth, but they're only slight favorites while the teams he needs to lose are also favorites with one of them six outs away from eliminating a scenario as I write this. He has a rather simple scenario, but I don't think it's to be expected to happen. [7] Corey Beaudoin (-5)- 9/30 Pick: DET ~ PPD Maximum Points: -5 Minimum Points: -5 How He'd Qualify: If the Tigers-Orioles game is miraculously picked up before midnight...and the Tigers win. How He'd Miss Out: He's guaranteed to finish outside the top five due to the postponement. If the Red Sox win, he's out. If they lose, Soester passes him by a point due to the White Sox winning. A Mets loss would move one extra person behind him, but that's little consolation Chances: 0% likelihood of advancing. Had the game not been postponed, I'd give the Tigers just better than even odds with Jeremy Bonderman against Jeremy Guthrie in Baltimore and Miguel Cabrera hurt, but he would still have required a Mets or Red Sox loss to advance. [8] Chris Wanned (-6)- 9/30 Pick: BOS [DMU] & SF (9/28 PPD) Maximum Points: 0 Minimum Points: -12 How He'd Qualify: A Red Sox win, a Giants win and a Mets loss. How He'd Miss Out: A Red Sox or Giants loss. Chances: 33% likelihood of advancing. The Red Sox and Giants are favorites, but so are the Mets and to get three results to go your way is a bit tougher. Wanned is in a unique spot due to his 9/28 pick being postponed. If the Giants win, they increase his current streak to three games, making the Boston pick worth up to four points instead of two after the Giants pick would already bump his point total up to negative four points. If the Giants lose and the Red Sox win, his point total would stay at negative six as the Giants would take away two points before the Red Sox add that total back. If both lose, he'll finish ninth for the round. [9] Jay Soester (-8)- 9/30 Pick: CWS [DMU] Maximum Points: -4 Minimum Points: -12 How He'd Qualify: A White Sox win with a Mets loss. How He'd Miss Out: A Red Sox win. Chances: 20% likelihood of advancing. The odds of any team in any contest to beat any other team mathematically are one in two, multiply that ratio by itself for a second game and you get one in four, or 25%. The Red Sox and Mets are slight favorites, and it's hard to believe someone can rebound from starting out with six incorrect picks in a row, including a DMU...for those reasons, I took an extra 5% away. Soester went all or nothing to crack the final round. If he's wrong, he'll finish tenth for the round, but he lucked into even having a scenario to qualify for the final round thanks to a combination of a three game streak following his six game incorrect streak and the picks of those above him giving him an avenue to leap over four members above him. At least the end of the season will see some excitement before what is potentially shaping up as a victory parade for Mike Brekke over the weekend. |
Tags: Playoffs,Qualification,Postponements |
Category: Playoffs | Secondary Category: Day-to-Day News |
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