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 With the draft rapidly approaching, here are my thoughts on how the first round will pan out. 1. Indianapolis Colts - QB Andrew Luck, Stanford This has already been announced. Luck will don a horseshoe helmet and see just how Lucky he is. As the most coveted collegiate prospect in over a decade, he has lofty expectations to meet. His journey will officially begin Thursday night, though in reality, it began two years ago. 2. Washington Redskins - QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor This pick is also a formality. The Redskins traded the house to move up from the sixth overall position to the two spot to take whichever QB the Colts passed on. RGIII will be the pick here, and he'll be expected to lead the Redskins to glory. Not since 1999. 3. Minnesota Vikings - OL Matt Kalil, USC The third and fourth picks in the draft are where the fun REALLY begins. The Vikings could go one of a handful of ways here, taking Kalil, Justin Blackmon, Morris Claiborne or trading down for someone to take Ryan Tannehill, Trent Richardson, or someone else. I think they'll play it safe with Kalil and give Christian Ponder some much needed protection as he enters his first full season at the helm of the Vikings offense. 4. Cleveland Browns - WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State My personal interests lie here. As a Browns fan my entire life (sans their three season hiatus), I've gone through the motions of mediocrity and downright terrible football teams. If Colt McCoy is going to succeed, he needs a formidable weapon. Blackmon is the guy. A lot of drafts have the Browns taking Richardson here, which isn't a terrible pick, but not many running backs live up to their draft hype. Reggie Bush is the first that comes to mind, but there are countless others. Whoever the Browns decide on here should make an immediate impact, and with another first round pick, the options are wide open. 5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - CB Morris Claiborne, LSU Most would slot Richardson here if he doesn't go sooner. Not me. As I mentioned earlier, I'm not sold on any running backs going so high. With only Adrian Peterson being a recent success, it's not worth such a high pick. The Bucs have used LeGarrette Blount the past two seasons and he went undrafted. They don't need to spend a this pick on a back. They can shore up their defense with Claiborne, an instant playmaker. Ronde Barber isn't going to be around forever, guys. 6. St. Louis Rams - RB Trent Richardson, Alabama The Rams were hoping Blackmon or Kalil would slip to them when they made the trade with Washington. Things don't work out for them, but they take what most have considered this year's most talented player. Steven Jackson is approaching the age where running backs begin to disintegrate. St. Louis could also reach on Michael Floyd here, or perhaps Riley Reiff. If Richardson is available here, though, the Rams will either take him, or try and trade out a few spots so they can collect a few more picks and continue the rebuild under Jeff Fisher. 7. Jacksonville Jaguars - OL Riley Reiff, Iowa The Jaguars need to invest in protecting Blaine Gabbert, whom they selected last season. They could also go with Floyd here and provide Gabbert a weapon, but in order for a team to use a weapon, their assets need to be protected. Reiff goes here and the Jaguars find a weapon for Gabbert later on. 8. Miami Dolphins - QB Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M Not since 1999, when Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb and Akili Smith went in the top three, with Daunte Culpepper and Cade McNown following shortly thereafter, have so many QBs been taken so early in the draft. I do not think Tannehill is a top 10 talent. I do not think Tannehill should even be a thought here. But he is. And he'll hear his name called. And Dolphins fans will wait for ESPN to cue up the Ted Ginn Jr. footage from 2007. The fact there are rumors Miami is trying to move UP to secure Tannehill should be alarming to the Dolphins' faithful. We'll see what happens, but it's looking bleak. 9. Carolina Panthers - DT Fletcher Cox, Mississippi State Floyd may find his name called here as well, but the Panthers have a more pressing need on the defensive side of the ball, and with Cox still on the board, they waste little of their allotted time and take him. 10. Buffalo Bills - WR Michael Floyd, Notre Dame Buffalo landed former number one selection Mario Williams via free agency this offseason. With the defense under his watch, they pass on Quinton Coples and Melvin Ingram in order to provide a complement to Stevie Johnson. 11. Kansas City Chiefs - LB Luke Kuechly, Boston College Kuechly was a tackling machine at Boston College and will be expected to contribute right away. I envision him as a less feared, but just as highly regarded, version of Patrick Willis. He's got the smarts and talent to succeed and Kansas City is a great spot for him to do so. 12. Seattle Seahawks - DE Melvin Ingram, South Carolina To me, Ingram and Coples are 1A and 1B as far as Defensive Ends go. It will really be up to coach Pete Carroll on who he wants to bring in. Both of them could become outstanding NFL players, and this is what makes the draft so fun. The Seahawks can only select one player here, and their fans, and their front office, hope they make the right decision. Dontari Poe going here would not surprise me either. He's got Jason Pierre-Paul written all over him as far as his ceiling goes. 13. Arizona Cardinals - OL David DeCastro, Stanford Do not think for one second that Stanford's success was 100% Andrew Luck's doing. DeCastro played an enormous role in Stanford's offensive brilliance. Ten years ago, when the NFL was primarily a running league, DeCastro probably finds himself in the top five. 14. Dallas Cowboys - S Mark Barron, Alabama It seems evident the Cowboys want Barron. Fortunately for them, he falls to them and they don't need to settle for less than what they wanted. Barron, like most of the others taken before him, should come in and contribute to the Cowboys' defense immediately. 15. Philadelphia Eagles - DT Dontari Poe, Memphis The Eagles most definitely need defensive line help. They can take a potential project with huge dividends here in Poe, they could go with Coples, or they could take Michael Brockers. Any of those three can bolster their line. I feel Andy Reid wants a relentless worker like Poe on his squad, and that'll be the selection. 16. New York Jets - DE Quinton Coples, North Carolina With Floyd, Ingram and Poe off the board, the Jets decide on Coples. Coples can play either LB or DE in their 3-4, and with recent concerns about his attitude, he'll have Tim Tebow to try and change his ways, and Rex Ryan to put up with on the other side of things. 17. Cincinnati Bengals -DT Michael Brockers, LSU After last year's surprise playoff appearance, the Bengals have two first round selections and the ability to go after the best players on the board at the time of their pick. Here, they decide on Brockers. Surprisingly, the Bengals have no glaring needs this time around. They could reach on a WR like Kendall Wright or Stephen Hill to complement last season's pick of AJ Green, but they've got another pick and can take one of those guys there, or go with another position entirely. 18. San Diego Chargers -WR Kendall Wright, Baylor The Chargers can go O-Line here, they can go Linebacker, or they could go D-Back or WR. I have a feeling they'll try to get the most value at this spot and go with a WR after losing Vincent Jackson to Tampa Bay, and Antonio Gates becoming suddenly injury prone. Kendall Wright, RGIII's main target at Baylor is the pick. 19. Chicago Bears - DT Devon Still, Penn State After a defensive line rush in the middle of the first round eliminates all of Chicago's main targets, they reach a bit here for Still, but provide another weapon alongside the ever dangerous Julius Peppers. Trading for Brandon Marshall eliminates the need for a WR, so really the only question here is whether Chicago aims to bolster its offensive or defensive line. 20. Tennessee Titans - DE Chandler Jones, Syracuse At what point is a sleeper pick no longer a sleeper pick? Jones is probably a reach here, but he's expected to go in the mid to late first round, for whatever reason. Let's slot him here and see what happens. 21. Cincinnati Bengals - CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama The stars align again for Cincinnati, as they have their choice of the best available. They can go with Kirkpatrick here, or maybe Alabama teammate Courtney Upshaw, or the aforementioned Stephen Hill. 22. Cleveland Browns - DE Courtney Upshaw, Alabama A pair of Alabama teammates go back to back to teams in Ohio. Upshaw could be the do it all player the Browns need in their front seven. Cleveland has an underrated defensive core that needs a touch of fine tuning. Upshaw can be the guy that solidifies their defense. Similarly with their pick in the four spot, the Browns have plenty of holes, it just depends which player Mike Holmgren decides to run with, knowing he has an early second round pick as well. 23. Detroit Lions - OL Mike Adams, Ohio State Matt Stafford, a former number one overall pick, needs to be protected. If Ndamukong Suh was not wearing the same helmet as him, he may already be dead. Adams is a safe pick here, though they can go DB or another guy on the OL, like Jonathan Martin. 24. Pittsburgh Steelers - LB Dont'a Hightower, Alabama Pittsburgh makes it an AFC North party for Alabama defensive players. Hightower has too much potential to be passed on here, and with James Harrison having the ability to be suspended left and right, Hightower can alleviate some of that pressure by coming in and contributing. 25. Denver Broncos - DT Jerel Worthy, Michigan State I haven't seen many mock drafts with Worthy in the first round, but he definitely has the skills to be taken. Denver landed Peyton Manning this offseason, and he can make any player on the offensive side of the ball a playmaker. Worthy joins Von Miller on the defensive side of the ball and creates havoc for opposing linemen. 26. Houston Texans - DE Whitney Mercilus, Illinois Houston lost Mario Williams to Buffalo during the winter, and Mercilus alleviates that loss, a little bit. Houston could also go OL or WR or even TE, all of which would help Matt Schaub, but recovering from the loss of Williams is far more important than providing a solid offense another piece. 27. New England Patriots -CB Stephon Gilmore, South Carolina Somehow, the Patriots have two late first round choices again, and again, they have the opportunity to amend their defense. Gilmore is the guy here, as the Patriots are satisfied he fell this far, and can attack another need a few picks later. 28. Green Bay Packers -DE Nick Perry, USC To put it simply, the Packers defense was downright terrible last season. They take the best defensive player on the board in Perry. Their biggest loss this offseason was their backup quarterback Matt Flynn, so they will still be in good shape to contend for a Superbowl, even if their defense remains a work in progress. 29. Baltimore Ravens - OL Cordy Glenn, Georgia It's a near certainty Baltimore goes OL with their pick, unless Hightower finds a way to them. Here, they get their choice of Jonathan Martin, Peter Konz, or Cordy Glenn. I envision Baltimore going with Glenn here and working on more of their OL in the second round as well. 30. San Francisco 49ers - TE Coby Fleener, Stanford The Patriots have done astonishingly well with their two tight end package, and coach Jim Harbaugh has ties with Fleener dating back to Stanford. Pair up Vernon Davis and Fleener with Alex Smith and who knows what happens. They're set on the defensive side of the ball, so the only other option for them in my opinion is Jonathan Martin. I just like the idea of Fleener and Harbaugh being reunited, while knowing a two TE set works in the NFL. 31. New England Patriots - DE Andre Branch, Clemson Gilmore dropping to them at 27 eliminates the possibility of Janoris Jenkins, so the Patriots go with another defensive need by taking Branch. Something in my gut tells me the Patriots trade out of one (both?) of their spots, so this may all be moot. 32. New York Giants - CB Janoris Jenkins, North Alabama Mr. Irrelevant of the first round will be .... Like it should be with a Superbowl champion, there are no glaring holes needing to be patched. The Giants take a risk on Jenkins and hope it works out. If it doesn't, they'll still be a playoff contender aiming to repeat. The Giants got to where they are by drafting exceptionally well. Expect more of the same when it gets to their selection. SECOND ROUND BONUS PICKS 33. St. Louis Rams - OL Jonathan Martin, Stanford 34. Indianapolis Colts - OL Peter Konz, Wisconsin 35. Minnesota Vikings - WR Stephen Hill, Georgia Tech 36. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - RB Doug Martin, Boise State 37. Cleveland Browns - QB Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State 38. Jacksonville Jaguars - WR Rueben Randle, LSU 39. St. Louis Rams - DT Kendall Reyes, Connecticut 40. Carolina Panthers - WR Alshon Jeffery, South Carolina 41. Buffalo Bills - LB Shea McLellin, Boise State 42. Miami Dolphins - S Harrison Smith, Notre Dame Fantasy Spin: Every year there's talk of which rookie is going to light up the fantasy game, and almost every year, there are no rookies worthy of a high fantasy pick. I see much of the same this year. Depending on where Trent Richardson lands, he may be worth a high pick, but so was Ryan Mathews a few seasons ago, and we're still waiting for his breakthrough. Cam Newton was an anomaly last season, and RGIII may recreate his success, but I'd be more prone to hoping he lasts late in drafts and try to steal him then. |
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