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 Before I get into the preview for AFL Pickem, I have to start this piece with bad news. There's a possibility of a players' strike this weekend. Before the standard anti-millionaires reaction sets in, I should note that every player on an AFL Team earns $400/game, aside from the starting QB, who earns $1600/game. With each team playing 18 games, that's a guaranteed $7,200 for the majority and $28,800 for the starting QBs. There are a few bonuses that can be earned for team performance and the players are housed and get a per diem, but we are talking about a wage that would struggle to provide for a family. Having read a few articles around the internet, I believe the games will go on, but replacement players may be needed. The players are already under contract for this season, but are asking for more and threatening to strike for leverage. If that scenario takes place, the opening weekend may be delayed. I'll keep everyone posted. David Baumann seems to be the writer with the most knowledge on the subject for those interested in their own research. More reports today from Spokane and Tampa seem to further the idea of the strike being less likely and games going on regardless. With that out of the way, on to the season at large. For those completely new to the sport, I'd recommend checking out the league's website and it's ustream.tv channel where you can watch any game not televised nationally. The NFL Network broadcasts one AFL game per week, usually at 8 PM ET on Friday night. How is the AFL different from the NFL? The most obvious difference is the fact that the games are played in an arena instead of a stadium. With that comes size constraints. Instead of the 120-yard NFL field, AFL fields are 50 yards long with eight yard endzones and are roughly half as wide as well (85 feet to 160 feet). The outer border of an AFL field features padded walls which are 48 feet high. The ends of an AFL field feature rebound nets which keep the ball in play except in the case of extra point tries. The field goal space itself is less than half that of the NFL (18.5 feet to 9 feet) and five feet higher off the ground (15 to 10). With the field size roughly halved, AFL teams play with eight on the field instead of the 11 in the NFL while they have just 20 active players for a game instead of the NFL's 46. Those 20 players (plus 4 inactives) have to last 18 games over 20 weeks, instead of 17 over 18, before the top four teams from each conference qualify for the postseason. The current trajectory of NFL play is toward that of the AFL game. In the AFL, passing dominates. Last season, the AFL's rushing leader had 622 yards in 18 games on 167 rushes with his nearest competition finishing at 365 yards. Only three players topped 300 yards, with third through fifth on the list all quarterbacks. The leading passer managed 5,310 yards on 677 attempts while completing 67.2% of his attempts. The rules are set up to further that ideology along. An offense can send one receiver in motion toward the line of scrimmage at the snap while the defense can't blitz anyone but a designated linebacker while the other linebacker can't drop back more than five yards until the ball is thrown or pump faked. With just three DBs up against three WRs, it's tough for a defense to play zone in most situations. That predictability, on top of the need to play man-to-man, helps lead to higher scoring games. Statistical Comparison For the 2011-12 NFL season, the average team score was 22.18 points, the median score was 21 points and the average margin of victory was 12.05 points. The low score was obviously zero while the highest point total was 62 points by the Saints against the Colts on SNF. For the 2011 AFL season (links will go to the 2012 equivalents), the average team score was 53.43 points, the median score was 54 points and the average margin of victory was 14.15 points. The low score was 20 points by Tulsa (now San Antonio) against Arizona in week 3 while the high score was 85 points by Orlando against Tulsa in week 19. That's a difference of 31 more points per game for each AFL team compared to their NFL counterparts. Studying [glancing at] the data, both NFL and AFL scores follow a normal distribution over the course of the season. The standard deviation for AFL team scores was 13.187 points compared to 10.211 points for NFL scores. That's an increase of 30%. While there isn't much of a difference in the score ranges (62 for NFL scores; 65 for AFL scores), the AFL distribution was more evenly distributed than the NFL distribution. I believe the outlier that was the Saints' high score for the season (it was 13 points higher than the four next highest scores on the season and had a Z-score of 3.8997, yes I realize I should remove it from the data set) was largely responsible as the AFL range would have been 32% larger than the NFL range without it, but the fact that the AFL doesn't have a constraint at the lower end where NFL teams can't score negative points also plays a part. I'm sure many of you have bypassed that last paragraph. For those still here, and wondering what it can do for you, both sets of data following standard distribution allows us to compare any one score from one set of data to another score in the other set. The most straight forward comparison is between the two averages. Predicting an AFL team to score 53.4321 points is equivalent to predicting an NFL team to score 22.1797 points. If you want to compare an AFL score to an NFL score, you can use this formula, where "a" is an AFL score and "n" is an NFL score:  To turn an NFL score into an AFL score, you can use this formula:  With that data in hand, I determined the need to alter the AFL Pickem scoring system compared to the NFL Pickem scoring system. With a 30% increase in the standard deviation of AFL scores, I increased the number of points given for a correct score prediction by roughly 30% (6 to 8). The score for a correct margin prediction was increased by 20% (15 to 18) and the score for a correct pick (30 to 60) and perfect game (3 to 6) were both doubled. The margin, pick and perfect game decisions were influenced by the nature of games as much as by the data. AFL halves can end in a flurry of scores as teams go for onside kicks to set themselves up for the final opportunity to score. I wanted to ensure correct predictions were weighed more heavily than anything given that resulting unpredictability in team scores and winning margins. With the stats comparison sorted out, how do you know which teams to pick to win? Well, I personally believe the logic tends to follow that of the typical NFL season. Before the season begins, you should have an idea of how a team will perform based on how it did the prior season and what roster moves were made. Inevitably, a few completely unforeseen results happen in week one. Over the next month or so, you have to sort out which surprises will actually hold up and which disappointments will continue to disappoint. From there things slowly begin to hold as you'd expect. To help you for week 1, here are the standings from last season. If you have any other questions about the league or game, feel free to ask in the game thread. |
Sections: Main, Fantasy Games | Tags: Games_Available, AFL_Pickem, ASFL2_Fantasy_Games, Unofficial_Games, Bonus_Points |